Out of 30
% of one median monthly salary
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Affordability over time
A stepped view of the affordability score. The line changes only when mortgage rates or the modelled single-earner burden move into a different scoring band.
Focused view: the vertical scale is tightened to make score changes readable. The affordability pillar is still scored out of 30.
Single-earner repayment burden over time
This models the share of one ONS median monthly salary needed to repay an 85% mortgage on the average-priced UK home over 25 years at the Bank of England’s average new-mortgage rate. It is not the average payment burden of actual borrower households.
Dashed guide lines mark the 35% and 40% single-earner burden thresholds used by the affordability score.
How affordability is measured
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Affordability combines two things: the Bank of England’s average new mortgage rate, and a standardised single-earner home-accessibility benchmark built from the average UK house price and ONS median pay. The model assumes one median salary, a 15% deposit and a 25-year repayment mortgage.
assumed_income = one ONS median monthly salary
loan_amount = uk_hpi_average_price × 0.85
monthly_repayment = standard repayment mortgage formula
(using BoE new mortgage rate, 25-year term)
single_earner_burden_pct = (monthly_repayment / assumed_income) × 100
What this benchmark measures
It asks how much pressure a modelled mortgage on the average-priced UK home would place on one person earning the median salary. It is designed to track whether access is becoming easier or harder for a median earner using the same assumptions every month.
What it does not measure
It does not represent the average payment-to-income ratio of households that successfully obtain mortgages. Actual borrowers may have two incomes, buy below the national average price, provide a different deposit or choose a different mortgage term. Observed borrower figures and this single-earner benchmark therefore answer different questions and should not be compared as if they were the same measure.
How the affordability score is built
- Mortgage rate component: scored out of 10.
- Single-earner burden component: scored out of 12.
- Those two raw components are added together for a raw affordability score out of 22.
- The raw score is then rescaled to a displayed pillar score out of 30 for the wider index.
Mortgage rate bandings
- 10 out of 10: rate at or below 3.0% — very supportive.
- 8 out of 10: above 3.0% to 4.0% — supportive.
- 6 out of 10: above 4.0% to 5.0% — moderate pressure.
- 3 out of 10: above 5.0% to 6.0% — high pressure.
- 0 out of 10: above 6.0% — severe pressure.
Single-earner burden bandings
- 12 out of 12: below 25% of one median monthly salary — stronger single-earner affordability.
- 9 out of 12: 25% to under 30% — reasonable single-earner affordability.
- 6 out of 12: 30% to under 35% — stretched single-earner affordability.
- 3 out of 12: 35% to under 40% — poor single-earner affordability.
- 0 out of 12: 40% or more — severely stretched single-earner affordability.
Important note
This is a standardised single-earner accessibility benchmark, not a claim about every buyer or existing borrower. It is intentionally stricter than an observed household measure because it tests an average-priced home against one median salary and also captures the pressure facing people who may be unable to enter the market.